2025
Norway
Arne Brudflad Svendsen and Tørris Digernes have developed a real-time probabilistic forecasting tool, Promaps Realtime, that continuously assesses grid capacity and operational risk, now supporting Norway’s Maksgrid initiative to boost utilisation by 25%. It predicts congestion, faults and weather stress, guiding renewable and flexibility planning. Compatible with existing SCADA systems, it improves TSO-DSO coordination and enables proactive, risk-based decisions for a safer, faster and more cost-efficient energy transition.
Highlights
01
Unlocks up to 25% additional grid capacity through probabilistic risk forecasting.
02
Enables TSO–DSO coordination and climate-aware planning for renewables and flexibility.
03
Fully modular, secure, and compatible with existing SCADA and planning systems.
Main Information
Promaps Realtime and the mathematical foundation, developed by Arne Brufladt Svendsen and Tørris Digernes as part of Norway’s Maksgrid initiative solution, delivers real-time probabilistic forecasting of grid risks, helping operators manage congestion, faults, and weather-induced stress. It enables the Norwegian power system to increase grid utilization by more than 25% without major reinforcements, supporting a safer, faster, and more cost-efficient energy transition.
The system forecasts operational risks by combining probabilistic methods, such as Markov processes, Kronecker product and advanced aggregations, with geospatial mapping. These simulations quantify uncertainty, allowing operators to assess not only what might happen, but how likely it is. The tool visualises critical transmission and distribution nodes and branches, enabling earlier and better-informed interventions while improving coordination between TSOs, DSOs, and large consumers.
The mathematical breakthrough and foundation of Promaps Realtime enable real-time probabilistic simulation of grid reliability and capacity, forming the core of its predictive capabilities. Promaps Realtime integrates seamlessly with existing SCADA and planning systems and can operate using only historical data or within secure firewalls, ensuring cybersecurity and data protection. It supports climate scenario modelling and spatial planning for renewables, storage, and flexibility, identifying the most valuable locations for investment and operation.
The tool’s probabilistic forecasting and visualisation of uncertainty represent a paradigm shift in how grids can be managed and expanded. It empowers system operators to act before failures occur, strengthens resilience to climate variability, and helps optimise the use of existing infrastructure.
The platform has been validated through pilot deployments and accuracy testing against historical events, successfully predicting congestion scenarios up to 48 hours in advance. Feedback from grid operators confirmed enhanced situational awareness, greater confidence in decision-making, and improved system coordination.
Promaps Realtime is scalable, transferable, and applicable beyond Norway, providing a science-based and practical solution to a global challenge: ensuring secure and reliable grid operation under accelerating electrification and renewable integration.
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